Jasper Smith

Commentary on politics, economics, culture and sports.

’08 Musings

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One often hears anti-Hillary Clinton memes on the left. It’s safe to say that the futher left you look, the less popular she is. One can certainly understand the disagreement your average lefty has with the Senator — especially on Iraq. But the argument that she’s “unelectable” is pretty lame.

Hillary will have her work cut out for her to take the White House unless the economy tanks next year — but so will any Democratic nominee. It’s likely to be a close election. I see the only chance for a Democratic blow-out being a significantly worsened war situation (or the aforementioned recession, and the odds of that seem to be steadily declining). It’s just bizarre, though, to say Senator Clinton is “unelectable”. I’ve seen national polls putting her ahead of any likely GOP nominee nationally. History strongly favors the Democrat in 2008 (on only one occassion in the post FDR-era, 1988, have Americans given the White House to the same party three consecutive times). And again, her negatives may be high in places like Mississippi and Kansas, but she doesn’t need to win 49 states. She just needs to add a few purplish ones to Kerry’s total.

While we’re on the subject, let me say that I think Bill Richardson would make a good running mate for Hillary should she take the nomination. He’s a sensible moderate with foreign policy expertise from a mountain state who should help her take New Mexico, and should also help her in places like Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. But he should also help Hillary in general with the burgeoning Hispanic vote. If Hillary can pry another 10 or 15 points of this group from the GOP, it would probably give her Florida and Ohio, and maybe even put Texas into play. I reckon a Democratic ticket that wins a healthy majority of female voters, 80%+ of Hispanic voters, and 90%+ of black voters, thumps to a hefty Electoral College victory in 2008, especially if the GOP chooses a hard core conservative. If they nominate a Guiliani, though, the calculus gets murkier, because the Democrats will have to defend a lot of blue territory. I think the moderate former mayor would at least be competitive in places like California and Massachusetts (and, needless to say, New York).

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Written by Jasper

February 1, 2007 at 1:50 am

Posted in Election 08, Policy

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